El Niño’s looming threat to the global food system

1 It has been a turbulent year for the global food industry.

2 Disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a surge in the price of fertiliser, fuel and cooking oil.

3 The Ukraine war has continued to hit grain exports through the Black Sea, and droughts and wildfires, linked to global warming, have scorched crops from Australia to Europe.

4 Now an intensifying El Niño — a climate pattern originating in the tropical Pacific that releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere — is set to compound strains on food production and trade.

1 The phenomenon, which raises temperatures and the risk of extreme weather worldwide every two to seven years on average, can last for up to 18 months.

2 The latest cycle started in June, but alarming forecasts published by the UK Met Office last week point to an exceptional rise in water temperatures later this year, which could lead to the strongest El Niño “in living memory”.

3 The resulting wilder weather is expected to dent coffee and cocoa production across west Africa and South America, while in Asia rice cultivation is at risk from weaker monsoon rains.

1 The transportation of food and agricultural inputs could be hindered by lower water levels in key shipping routes too.

2 Last week, the Panama Canal Authority announced plans to limit the number of daily transits through the waterway, owing to a lack of rainfall linked to the intensifying El Niño.

3 Droughts also risk sapping hydroelectric and nuclear power generation, which could add pressure to energy prices.

1 Worryingly, the World Food Programme warns that the number of acutely food-insecure people in the most vulnerable nations could rise by a fifth to 274mn by the end of 2027.

2 Economists also expect high inflation to be stickier.

3 Analysts at JPMorgan estimate a severe El Niño on its own could raise global food inflation by around 0.7 percentage points at its peak.

4 That will disproportionately hurt those in developing nations, where food expenses are a greater share of consumption.

1 The global food system has, however, often outperformed the worst-case El Niño predictions.

2 Indeed, in some regions the temporary shift in climate helps to diversify agricultural yields.

3 Supply chains have tended to be more agile than expected, and new farming technologies have helped too.

4 But the threat from El Niño is growing.

1 First, as is clear this year, climate change and mounting geopolitical rifts are straining food supplies between cycles.

2 Second, global warming can exacerbate volatile weather conditions when the phenomenon occurs.

3 And finally, there is a growing body of research that suggests that the general increase in global temperatures over time may itself be increasing the intensity of the weather oscillation.

1 In turn, the combination of climate change and El Niño means the world must be better prepared for recurring, substantive shocks to food supplies.

2 The food industry will benefit from greater investment in early warning systems, smart-farming technologies such as soil-moisture sensors and climate-resilient crops.

3 Governments will also need to maintain and monitor food stocks more closely, and ensure national supply chains are sufficiently diversified.

4 International co-operation to share weather data and limit the risk of damaging trade restrictions on food and agricultural inputs will be equally important.

5 Central bankers will need to be more alive to the risks of higher food prices becoming embedded in inflation expectations.

1 But anticipation and adaptation have their limits.

2 Reducing the threat that El Niño poses to the global food system in the future will warrant a faster green transition too.